Project Mismanagement

As Project Manager, the coding group tells you there is an 85% probability they will complete on-time. The testing group gives you an 80% number. The implementation group also gives an 80% chance of on-time completion. What is the completion number for the whole project?

Nope...it's not the average...82%. And it's not your own personal guesstimate.

The actual on-time completion probability is 54%. Why? Because in this situation probabilities are multiplied.

This is one reason so many projects are late and over-budget. Managers are blissfully unaware they are actually barely on-time and on-budget until it's too late.

What's the solution? I think we know.